Temperatures in India are rising, which could mean more deaths due to heat waves, say scientists at IIT-Delhi and Bombay

A recent study has found that the mean temperatures in India have risen by 0.5 degree Celsius over a period of 60 years, which corresponds to a 146% increase in the probability of deaths due to heat waves in the country. Done by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)-Delhi and IIT-Bombay, Mumbai, and University of California, Irvine and Los Angeles, and Boise State University, USA, it deciphers that even moderate increases in mean temperatures, such as 0.5°C, may lead to large increases in heat wave-related deaths. Based on their findings, they urge the government to put in more efforts to build up the resilience of vulnerable populations in regions with severe heat waves.

They studied temperature data from 395 weather stations from Indian meteorological department between the years 1960 to 2009. “Our results suggest that future climate warming will lead to substantial increases in heat-related deaths, particularly in developing low-latitude countries, such as India, where heat waves will become more frequent and populations are especially vulnerable to these extreme temperatures” they say. The research team comprised of Omid Mazdiyasni, Amir AghaKouchak, Steven J Davis, Shahrbanou Madadgar, Ali Mehran, Elisa Ragno, Mojtaba Sadegh, Ashmita Sengupta, Subimal Ghosh, CT Dhanya, and Mohsen Niknejad. They published their results in the journal Science Advances. ^.

Their data shows that in years—1972, 1988, 1998, and 2003—when there were more than 10 heat wave days on average across India, there was a corresponding spike in heat-related deaths of between 650 and 1500 people.

The substantial increase in mortality rates due to 0.5°C increase in summer mean temperature or two more heat wave days suggests that future climate warming could have a relatively drastic human toll in India and similarly in developing tropical and subtropical countries. “Our data will create awareness about the impact of rising temperatures in India on health, and this needs to be urgently communicated to the society”, says Dr. Subimal Ghosh, at the Department of Civil engineering at IIT-Bombay in Mumbai, who did the study.

Reference: Science Advances 3: e1700066.

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