A recent study
has found that the mean temperatures in India have risen by 0.5 degree Celsius
over a period of 60 years, which corresponds to a 146% increase in the
probability of deaths due to heat waves in the country. Done by researchers at
the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)-Delhi and IIT-Bombay, Mumbai, and University of California, Irvine and Los Angeles, and Boise
State University, USA, it deciphers that even moderate increases in mean temperatures, such as 0.5°C, may lead to
large increases in heat wave-related deaths. Based on their findings, they urge
the government to put in more efforts to build up the resilience of vulnerable
populations in regions with severe heat waves.
They studied temperature data from 395 weather stations
from Indian meteorological department between the years 1960 to 2009. “Our
results suggest that future climate warming will lead to substantial increases
in heat-related deaths, particularly in developing low-latitude countries, such
as India, where heat waves will become more frequent and populations are
especially vulnerable to these extreme temperatures” they say. The research
team comprised of Omid Mazdiyasni, Amir
AghaKouchak, Steven J Davis, Shahrbanou Madadgar, Ali Mehran, Elisa Ragno, Mojtaba
Sadegh, Ashmita Sengupta, Subimal Ghosh, CT Dhanya, and Mohsen Niknejad. They
published their results in the journal Science Advances. .
Their data shows that in years—1972,
1988, 1998, and 2003—when there were more than 10 heat wave days on average
across India, there was a corresponding spike in heat-related deaths of between
650 and 1500 people.
The substantial increase in
mortality rates due to 0.5°C increase in summer mean temperature or two more
heat wave days suggests that future climate warming could have a relatively
drastic human toll in India and similarly in developing tropical and
subtropical countries. “Our data will create awareness about the impact of
rising temperatures in India on health, and this needs to be urgently
communicated to the society”, says Dr. Subimal Ghosh, at the Department of
Civil engineering at IIT-Bombay in Mumbai, who did the study.
Reference: Science Advances 3: e1700066.
This story got published in Down To Earth, BioVoice, CatchNews, Newsroom24X7, and Dainik Jagran.